The Times They Are a-Changin'
John F. Kennedy once said that “change is the law of life.” And he said this before Ozempic, LLMs, Nvidia GPUs, and President Trump. Change brings both risks and opportunities. Are you ready for it?
Take a look at this table that tracks the top 10 largest U.S. stocks by market cap from the 1930s to the 2020s. Former ExxonMobil CEO Lee Raymond once said “[w]e see governments come and go[…]” implying that Exxon will remain a constant. Truly, Exxon is still a very large company. However, it went from the largest company in 2010 to not even making the list by 2020. Things change.
GE was another company on the top 10 list until recently. Jack Welch, former GE CEO, famously said, “change before you have to.” Indeed, in investing, what seemed to always work in the past will not necessarily work going forward.
Some other things that jump out to me:
From Steel to Silicon: In the 1930s, industrial and utility powerhouses like General Motors and AT&T led the pack, reflecting a manufacturing-driven economy. By the 2020s, tech titans—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—dominate, showcasing the digital revolution’s dominance.
Cyclical Giants: Energy giants like Standard Oil (1930s) and Exxon (1980s) rose and receded with global demand, while names like IBM and GE peaked in earlier decades only to make way for new innovators. Resilience requires reinvention.
Change is happening at increasing rates. Half of the top ten largest companies were replaced in the 2010s and 2020s. Just 5 years into the 2020s, a few of these names are already replaced.
What’s Next?: The shift from railroads to tech begs the question: Will AI, green energy, or another sector define the 2030s?
For investors, this chart is a powerful reminder to diversify and stay ahead of structural shifts and trends.
